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“There is a lot of uncertainty because it is such a scarce occurrence,” Chris Hughes, a staff attorney at FairVote, a voting-rights advocacy group, told us.

According to FairVote, there have been 157 “faithless electors” in the history of the U.S. But even that figure is deceptively high. Of those, 71 votes were changed because the original candidate died before the Electoral College cast its votes. In all, the group states, “82 electoral votes were changed on the personal initiative of the elector.” None has affected the outcome of a presidential election.

The most recent example occurred in 2004 when an anonymous elector from Minnesota, pledged to vote for Democrat John Kerry, cast a presidential vote instead for Kerry’s running mate, John Edwards, some believe by mistake. In 2000, a Democratic elector from the District of Columbia declined to cast her vote “to protest the lack of congressional representation for Washington, DC,” FairVote notes.

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